A sneaker wave surges farther up a beach than the preceding surf suggests. Tide predictions do not forecast it: our July 1–December 31, 2026 data contain 548 minus tides with daylight-overlapping windows across 11 West Coast stations, including La Push (NOAA 9442396), but that count says nothing about wave risk. A low tide, daylight overlap or high Tidewindow score does not establish safe arrival or beach access.
What is a sneaker wave?
The National Weather Service's sneaker-wave page describes unexpectedly extensive, potentially deadly run-up. Small waves may precede it for 10–20 minutes. NWS gives an example reach of at least 150 feet (45 meters) into dry beach, not a maximum distance or a setback rule. It also describes heavy, water-soaked logs being lifted or rolled by the surge.
A tide table answers a different question: the predicted water level at a reference station. It does not describe the reach of an individual breaking wave.
What the research explains—and what it does not
The 2023 paper Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast examines observations and numerical simulations. Its central case is January 16, 2016, when extreme run-up occurred along roughly 1,000 kilometers of Washington, Oregon and northern California coastline within five hours.
The authors identify a plausible mechanism: energy transfers from ordinary swell into much longer infragravity waves, producing an unusually large run-up response. Their observations link the event to a rapid increase in low-frequency wave energy. This helps explain the phenomenon; it does not turn a tide-table hour, a season or a count of visible breakers into a prediction of the next wave.
Dawn tide timing is not a wave-risk forecast
Our Pacific dawn-tide explainer concerns tidal timing, not surf conditions. The current fact-sheet range is July 1–December 31, 2026, inclusive by station-local date—not a full calendar year. Across 11 West Coast stations, 548 minus tides have modeled windows with at least 30 minutes of daylight overlap.
Within that selection, 164 lows fall in the 5:00–7:59 AM hour bins (53 + 58 + 53), and 132 lows fall in the 4:00–6:59 PM bins (45 + 51 + 36). These are counts of predicted lows, not the probability or frequency of sneaker waves. Daylight overlap also does not mean the low itself—or the entire below-threshold interval—is in daylight.
The site's “arrive-by” field is a mechanical offset: low tide minus one hour. It is not a verified arrival time, an observation allowance or a route plan. No safety observation period is built into the calculation.
Historical example: August 12, 2026
These five station rows are retained as a historical example, not upcoming dates or a remaining-season ranking. Sunrise makes the distinction between a tide time and a daylight-overlapping window visible.
| Station | NOAA id | Low (ft MLLW) | Low time | Sunrise | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Push | 9442396 | −2.31 | 6:58 AM | 6:09 AM | 90 (Exceptional) |
| Garibaldi | 9437540 | −1.77 | 7:04 AM | 6:12 AM | 85 (Great) |
| Newport | 9435380 | −1.91 | 6:46 AM | 6:15 AM | 88 (Great) |
| Charleston | 9432780 | −1.72 | 6:35 AM | 6:19 AM | 81 (Great) |
| Port Orford | 9431647 | −1.74 | 6:19 AM | 6:21 AM | 80 (Great) |
Rechecked October 22, 2026 against the committed NOAA predictions and calculated windows. Times are local PDT; heights are relative to MLLW. Sunrise and Tidewindow scores are calculated, not NOAA observations. Scores follow our methodology and are not wave-risk or access ratings.
At Newport, the model's 5:46 AM offset is before the 6:15 AM sunrise. All five one-hour offsets precede sunrise. Port Orford's 6:19 AM low itself is before its 6:21 AM sunrise. At La Push, the below-threshold interval spans 4:30–9:25 AM: 295 minutes in total, but only 195 minutes of daylight overlap. None of those numbers supplies an arrival instruction.
The August 8–13 Puget Sound guide is another dated example; the Oregon hub links to station calendars. Neither replaces current wave forecasts or land-manager access information.
Official guidance, in the agencies' words
From the National Weather Service: “watch the ocean for at least 20 minutes. Study its wave patterns.” Also: “Never turn your back on the ocean.” These are agency instructions, not a guarantee produced by waiting for a fixed interval.
Oregon State Parks: “Know when the tide is coming in, especially when exploring tidepools or secluded beaches.”
Olympic National Park's tidepooling page: “Watch closely for the returning tide and 'sneaker waves.'” Its coastal planning page adds: “Wherever you go along the coast, always carry a tide table and know how to use it!”
The NWS page above includes official forecast links. The Tide Window Finder supplies the tide portion: predicted lows, modeled below-threshold intervals and daylight overlap. It does not forecast sneaker waves or verify route access.